As Cape Town hosts the Mining Indaba this week, the scale of the gathering once again reminds us of mining’s enduring significance to South Africa. More than 10 000 delegates from global executives to investors and government leaders will converge to discuss the future of an industry that has anchored our economy for well over a century.
According to Stats SA, gross domestic product from mining in Q3 2025 increased to over R200 million, up from Q2 2025, and provided direct employment to nearly half a million people. These are not simply numbers; they reflect the extent to which mining remains deeply woven into South Africa’s economic and social fabric.
But as we celebrate the sector’s contribution, we should also reflect on an uncomfortable truth: South Africa has not applied this same strategic focus, ambition or urgency to offshore oil and gas despite the potential for equally transformative impact.
A region accelerating while South Africa hesitates
While Namibia and Mozambique are rapidly emerging as major energy markets attracting exploration investment, creating jobs and securing new revenue streams, South Africa has barely moved off the starting line.
We have not meaningfully mapped our offshore resource potential. We have not provided the certainty investors require. And we have not aligned national strategy with the energy needs of the next three decades.
The result? We remain vulnerable to energy insecurity and dependent on costly imports, even as potential solutions lie beneath our own waters.
A missed opportunity for industrial renewal
South Africa has already felt the consequences of dwindling domestic feedstock. Mossel Bay, once home to a thriving gas-to-liquids (GTL) sector, is now constrained by limited supply, with far-reaching impacts on jobs, manufacturing activity and economic vibrancy.
A stable, domestic gas supply could reverse this decline. It could:
- create thousands of new direct and indirect jobs.
- boost local manufacturing, particularly in coastal regions.
- strengthen and expand the petrochemicals value chain.
- revitalise industrial hubs that have been in long-term contraction.
In other words, offshore gas could provide the economic stimulus that mining once offered if we choose to pursue it.
Learning from Guyana’s transformation
If South Africa needs a modern case study in what is possible, Guyana offers a compelling example. Since first oil in 2019, the country has recorded the highest real GDP growth rates in the world, averaging around 47% per year since 2022. Offshore oil production has transformed public finances, infrastructure investment, employment and investor confidence seemingly overnight.
Guyana’s lesson is not that every discovery leads to a boom. It is that countries that act decisively, provide policy clarity and partner with credible operators can unlock extraordinary national benefits.
South Africa’s strategic crossroads
The Mining Indaba will rightly celebrate an industry that has built towns, delivered exports, financed infrastructure and kept South Africa competitive. But we must also ask: what sector will drive the next era of national growth?
Offshore oil and gas should be a central part of that conversation. We have geological potential, technical capability and regional demand. What we lack is alignment, certainty and urgency.
Mining became an economic pillar because South Africa chose to develop it. Offshore oil and gas could do the same if we choose to.
The window is open. The world is watching. The question now is whether South Africa is ready to seize the opportunity below our oceans before it slips away.
Aluwani Museisi
Country Chair
Shell Downstream South Africa